萊索托王國，一個位于南非高原的貧困山國，在特朗普政府實施的“對等關稅”政策下被加征了高達50%的進口關稅。
對于這個世界上最貧窮的國家之一，這是毀滅性的打擊。有分析師悲觀預測稱，工廠會關閉，工人會失業，“整個紡織行業將會消亡”。該國近一半的出口額或將因此消失。
萊索托既非經濟對手，也非戰略威脅，只因太窮了買不起美國出口商品，造成對美貿易順差，就被征收了接近最高上限的關稅稅率。
這個荒誕又悲哀的案例，被4月3日《大西洋月刊》的評論文章引為佐證，說明美國當前的關稅政策有多么荒唐，完全是特朗普毫無邏輯的個性的延伸（an extension of Trump's chaotic personality）。
該文作者德里克·湯普森（Derek Thompson）諷刺地點評道，要理解美國當前貿易政策，最合適的一句話是：“沒人知道是怎么回事”（Nobody knows anything）。
The most fitting analysis for this moment, however, does not come from an economist or a financial researcher. It comes from the screenwriter William Goldman, who pithily captured his industry's lack of foresight with one of the most famous aphorisms in Hollywood history: "Nobody knows anything."
特朗普關稅政策的邏輯矛盾
湯普森犀利地指出，特朗普的關稅政策“與其說是經濟理論，不如說是達達主義藝術（Dadaist）——用荒誕的方式質疑專業存在的必要性”。
各方對關稅目標的解釋自相矛盾：貿易顧問彼得·納瓦羅（Peter Navarro）宣稱這是“美國史上最大增稅計劃”，科技界親特朗普人士帕爾默·拉奇（Palmer Luckey）聲稱其終極目標是“通過迫使各國在懲罰性關稅面前取消現有貿易壁壘，最終實現完全自由貿易”，而經濟顧問斯蒂芬·米蘭（Stephen Miran）則將其視為“通過美元貶值和重振美國制造業就業，重新平衡美國與全球經濟的關系”的宏偉計劃。
然而，這三個目標——增加財政收入、恢復自由貿易和調整全球經濟——本就是相互矛盾的。這進一步說明這些關稅沒有一個統一連貫的解釋。
These three alleged goals — raising revenue, restoring free trade, and rejiggering the global economy — are incompatible with one another.
首先，增加財政收入與恢復自由貿易相互排斥：一項旨在自我消亡的征稅政策不可能長期充實國庫；其次，自由貿易主張與制造業復興目標相背離：若想實現再工業化，就不可能繼續依賴當初導致鐵銹地帶（美國東北部-五大湖附近蕭條的工業區）衰落的全球貿易放任政策。自由貿易要么是需要捍衛的經濟樂土，要么就是亟待摧毀的詛咒性政治秩序。
The first and second explanations are mutually exclusive: The state can't raise tax revenue in the long run with a levy that is designed to disappear. The second and third explanations are mutually exclusive too: You can't reindustrialize by doubling down on the global-trade free-for-all that supposedly immiserated the Rust Belt in the first place. Either global free trade is an economic Valhalla worth fighting for, or it's the cursed political order that we're trying desperately to destroy.
更荒誕的在于關稅的計算方式：所謂“對等”關稅，既非鏡像復制他國關稅水平，亦非平衡雙邊貿易流量，而是一套獨特的算法。特朗普團隊似乎是基于美國與某國的貿易逆差除以從該國進口的總額，再經過粗略調整，得出新關稅。
The Trump team seems to have calculated each penalty by dividing the US trade deficit with a given country by how much the US imports from it and then doing a rough adjustment.
在這種計算方式下，無人居住的赫德島（Heard island）、麥克唐納群島（McDonald Islands）被加征10%關稅，而駐有美英軍隊的英屬印度洋領地（British Indian Ocean Territory）同樣上榜。
以萊索托為例，該國對美出口價值2.37億美元的鉆石與其他商品，同時，由于該國貧困，無力購買大多數美國出口商品，造成美國對萊索托的貿易逆差。逆差與進口額之比畸高，經公式運算后得出50%的新關稅。
湯普森諷刺道：“認為美國必須對萊索托寶石征稅才能在俄亥俄州增加鋼鐵就業崗位的觀點荒謬至極，荒謬到我寫到這句話時都差點昏厥過去。”
The Trump team seems to have calculated each penalty by dividing the US trade deficit with a given country by how much the US imports from it and then doing a rough adjustment. Because Lesotho's citizens are too poor to afford most US exports, while the US imports $237 million in diamonds and other goods from the small landlocked nation, we have reserved close to our highest-possible tariff rate for one of the world's poorest countries. The notion that taxing Lesotho gemstones is necessary for the US to add steel jobs in Ohio is so absurd that I briefly lost consciousness in the middle of writing this sentence.
當國家經濟淪為個性試驗場
這暴露了特朗普關稅政策的本質——它無關經濟理性，而是“特朗普人格在整個政府內部的轉移蔓延”（all-of-government metastasis of Trump's personality）。
If the tariffs violate their own internal logic and basic common sense, what are they? Most likely, they represent little more than the all-of-government metastasis of Trump's personality, which sees grandiosity as a strategy to pull counterparties to the negotiating table and strike deals that benefit Trump's ego or wallet.
正如特朗普在《交易的藝術》中坦承的個人哲學：“瞄準極高目標，不斷施壓，直到獲得我想要的。”這種思維，使得關稅成為權力和杠桿的無限游戲。
This personality style is clear, and it has been clearly stated, even if its application to geopolitics is confounding to observe. "My style of deal-making is pretty simple and straightforward," Trump writes in The Art of the Deal. "I aim very high, and then l just keep pushing and pushing and pushing to get what I'm after. Sometimes I settle for less than I sought but in most cases I still end up with what I want."
特朗普支持者將這種“混亂戰術”美化為“打破支離破碎的體系”，但湯普森尖銳指出其代價：經濟增長需要正和與長期規劃（positive-sum and long-term-oriented），而特朗普的個性始終是零和且急功近利的（zero-sum and urgent）。
“當我們的貿易政策似乎每月都可能因特朗普親自與全球各國談判而改變時，一家紡織公司真的會想在美國開設工廠嗎？在‘解放日關稅’引發全球拋售，導致國際衰退時，制造業企業真的應該投資昂貴的工廠擴建嗎？”
Trump's defenders praise the president for using chaos to shake up broken systems. But they fail to see the downside of uncertainty.
ls a textile company really supposed to open a US factory when our trade policy seems likely to change every month as Trump personally negotiates with the entire planet? Are manufacturing firms really supposed to invest in expensive factory expansions when the Liberation Day tariffs caused a global sell-off that signals an international downturn? Trump's personality is, and has always been, zero-sum and urgent, craving chaos, but economic growth is positive-sum and long-term-oriented, craving certainty for its largest investments.
萊索托的高額關稅，最終照見的是一個被個性統治的貿易體系。當財政部長的回答是“我們只能拭目以待”，當經濟政策成為達達主義藝術品，當“威脅、杠桿、讓步、重復”（threat, leverage, concession, repeat）的劇本在整個社會和國際貿易中上演，正如湯普森所說：“最可怕的不是關稅數字，而是數字背后的信息——我們都活在這位總統的腦子里，而那里，沒人知道是怎么回事。”
The scariest thing about the Trump tariffs isn't the numbers, but the underlying message. We're all living inside the president's head, and nobody knows anything.
編輯：左卓
見習編輯：裴禧盈
來源：大西洋月刊 中國新聞網 國際在線
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