國際貨幣基金組織（IMF）19日發布最新一期《世界經濟展望報告》，預計2022年全球經濟將增長3.6%，較1月份預測值下調0.8個百分點。
The International Monetary Fund (IMF) on Tuesday slashed global growth forecast for 2022 to 3.6 percent amid the Russia-Ukraine conflict, 0.8 percentage point lower than the January projection, according to its newly released World Economic Outlook (WEO) report.
根據國際貨幣基金組織（IMF）最新發布《世界經濟展望報告》，受俄烏沖突影響，4月19日該機構將2022年全球經濟增長預期下調至3.6%，較1月份預測值下調0.8個百分點。
The Ukraine crisis unfolds while the global economy is "on a mending path" but has not yet fully recovered from the COVID-19 pandemic, the report said, noting that global economic prospects have worsened "significantly" since the forecast in January.
IMF報告指出，烏克蘭危機爆發之際，全球經濟正“走在復蘇的道路上”，但尚未從疫情中完全恢復，自1月份做出預測以來，全球經濟前景已經“明顯”惡化。
A severe double-digit drop in GDP for Ukraine and a large contraction in Russia are "more than likely," along with worldwide spillovers through commodity markets, trade and financial channels, the report showed.
報告顯示，烏克蘭國內生產總值（GDP）出現兩位數嚴重下滑，且俄羅斯經濟急劇收縮的“可能性很大”，且還會通過大宗商品市場、貿易和金融途徑在全球范圍內產生溢出效應。
This year's growth outlook for the European Union has been revised downward by 1.1 percentage points to 2.8 percent due to the indirect effects of the conflict, making it a large contributor to the overall downward revision, according to the report.
報告稱，受俄烏沖突間接影響，歐盟今年的經濟增長前景被下調了1.1％至2.8％，這成為全球經濟增速整體下調的另一因素。
The US economy is on track to grow 3.7 percent in 2022, 0.3 percentage point lower than the January projection, before growth moderating to 2.3 percent in 2023.
美國今年經濟增長預期為3.7%，較1月份預測下調0.3個百分點，2023年經濟增長預期放緩至2.3%。
China's National Bureau of Statistics said Monday the country's gross domestic product grew 4.8 percent year on year to 27.02 trillion yuan (about 4.24 trillion US dollars) in the first three months, which is a steady start in 2022 in the face of global challenges and a resurgence of COVID-19 cases.
中國國家統計局4月18日表示，一季度國內生產總值同比增長4.8%，達27.02萬億元人民幣，面對國際挑戰和新冠疫情反彈，開局總體平穩。
Analysts said the full-year growth target of 5.5 percent set by China's policymakers is still attainable but requires greater efforts, given increasing economic headwinds.
分析人士表示，中國政策制定者設定的5.5%全年經濟增長目標仍然可以實現，但鑒于經濟阻力不斷增加，需要做出更大努力。
Global growth is projected to decline from an estimated 6.1 percent in 2021 to 3.6 percent in both 2022 and 2023, 0.8 and 0.2 percentage points lower for 2022 and 2023, respectively, than in the January projection, the report noted.
報告指出，2022年和2023年的全球經濟增長預期將從2021的6.1%下降到3.6%，較1月預測值分別下調0.8和0.2個百分點。
The latest report said the Russia-Ukraine conflict, monetary tightening and financial market volatility, and the pandemic would shape the near-term global outlook.
最新報告稱，俄烏沖突、貨幣緊縮和金融市場動蕩，以及新冠疫情將影響全球經濟短期前景。
Inflation has become "a clear and present danger" for many countries, IMF chief economist Pierre-Olivier Gourinchas noted in a blog published Tuesday morning.
IMF首席經濟學家皮埃爾·奧利維耶·古蘭沙在4月19日上午發表的一篇博文中指出，通貨膨脹已成為許多國家“一個明確而迫在眉睫的危險”。
He said even prior to the Russia-Ukraine conflict, inflation surged on the back of soaring commodity prices and supply-demand imbalances, and many central banks, such as the US Federal Reserve, had already moved toward tightening monetary policy.
他表示，在俄烏沖突之前，大宗商品價格飆升和供需失衡就導致通脹飆升，美聯儲等許多央行已經開始收緊貨幣政策。
Conflict-related disruptions "amplify those pressures," said Gourinchas. "We now project inflation will remain elevated for much longer."
古蘭沙稱，俄烏沖突引發的經濟后果“加劇了這些壓力”。“我們現在預測高通脹率將持續更久。”
For 2022, inflation is projected at 5.7 percent in advanced economies and 8.7 percent in emerging markets and developing economies, 1.8 and 2.8 percentage points higher than the January projection, the report showed.
報告顯示，2022年，發達經濟體的通脹率預計為5.7%，新興市場和發展中經濟體的通脹率預計為8.7%，分別比1月份的預測高出1.8和2.8個百分點。
Financial conditions tightened for emerging markets and developing countries immediately after the conflict, Gourinchas noted. "Several financial fragility risks remain, raising the prospect of a sharp tightening of global financial conditions as well as capital outflows," he said.
古蘭沙指出，沖突發生后，新興市場和發展中國家的金融狀況立即趨緊。“一些金融脆弱性風險依然存在，這增加了全球金融狀況急劇收緊以及資本外流的可能性”。
On the fiscal side, policy space was already eroded in many countries by the pandemic, said the IMF chief economist. "The surge in commodity prices and the increase in global interest rates will further reduce fiscal space, especially for oil- and food-importing emerging markets and developing economies."
古蘭沙表示，疫情已經侵蝕了許多國家的財政政策空間。“大宗商品價格飆升和全球利率上升將進一步縮小財政空間，特別是對進口石油和食品的新興市場和發展中經濟體而言。”
The report also warned that the conflict increases the risk of a more "permanent fragmentation" of the world economy into geopolitical blocks with distinct technology standards, cross-border payment systems and reserve currencies.
報告還警告稱，俄烏沖突還增加了世界經濟更永久地分裂為擁有不同技術標準、跨境支付系統和儲備貨幣的地緣政治集團的風險。
"Such a 'tectonic shift' would cause long-run efficiency losses, increase volatility and represent a major challenge to the rules-based framework that has governed international and economic relations for the last 75 years," Gourinchas said.
古蘭沙說：“這種‘結構性轉變’將導致長期效率損失，增加波動性，并對過去75年來基于規則的國際經濟關系治理框架構成重大挑戰。”
來源：新華社
編輯：董靜
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